Anthony Albanese urges China and US to reopen high-level communication channels to prevent conflict

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has used a keynote speech at the region’s top security summit to urge China to reopen high-level communication channels with the United States, saying both great powers need to establish “guardrails” to ensure catastrophic conflict does not break out.

Mr Albanese delivered the warning in front of a high-powered audience of leaders, military officers and diplomats — including both US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and China’s Defence Minister Li Shangfu — at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on Friday night.

Tensions have again been rising between Beijing and Washington following their latest military encounter in the South China Sea, and Mr Li turned down an offer from Mr Austin to meet on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue.

But Mr Albanese told the gathering that dialogue was an “essential precondition” for peace, stressing that Australia supported the Biden’s administration’s “renewed efforts” to open reliable channels of communications with Beijing.

“The alternative, the silence of the diplomatic deep freeze, only breeds suspicion, only makes it easier for nations to attribute motive to misunderstanding, to assume the worst of one another,” he told the gathering.

“This isn’t about a policy of containment, it’s not a question of placing obstacles in the way of any nation’s progress or potential.

South-East Asian nations have also become increasingly anxious about rising tensions between China and the United States, while analysts have warned that a military accident or direct confrontation in the South China Sea could spark a broader conflict.

Speaking in Japan ahead of the conference, Mr Austin also warned that incidents could “spiral out of control” if China’s military continued to take “provocative actions” in international waters and airspace in the South China Sea.

Mr Albanese told the Shangri-La Dialogue that establishing “guardrails” was a critical responsibility for both countries.

“If you don’t have the pressure valve of dialogue, if you don’t have the capacity — at a decision-making level — to pick up the phone, to seek some clarity or provide some context, then there is always a much greater risk of assumptions spilling over into irretrievable action and reaction,” he said.

“The consequences of such a breakdown — whether in the Taiwan Strait or elsewhere — would not be confined to the big powers or the site of their conflict, they would be devastating for the world.”

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Taiwan, AUKUS and regional security

Mr Albanese also delivered a veiled warning to China over Taiwan, while defending the Australian government’s move to acquire nuclear-powered submarines through the AUKUS pact with the US and the United Kingdom.

China has stepped up pressure on Taiwan and dramatically ramped up military exercises around the island after recent high-level meetings between the Taiwanese president and senior US politicians.

Beijing has accused Australia of undermining nuclear non-proliferation norms, and says the federal government is trying to get the submarines because it has been roped into a US-led effort to contain and suppress China.

Mr Albanese said Australia wanted to boost its miliary capability because it wanted to play its part in “preserving peace and security” through both deterrence and reassurance.

But he also directly referenced Taiwan, saying Australia wanted to make it “crystal clear” that “when it comes to any unilateral attempt to change the status quo by force — be it in Taiwan, the South China Sea, the East China Sea or elsewhere — the risk of conflict will always far outweigh any potential reward”.

Mr Albanese also repeatedly tried to emphasise that other smaller nations in the Pacific should not be seen as passive observers or pawns in conflicts between great powers, saying that ignored their capacity to actively shape events.

He also said that treating the region as a “potential theatre for conflict” which was “merely … an area for the ambitions” of others also risked presenting the future of the region as “somehow a foregone conclusion”.

“To move from imagining conflict is impossible to assuming war is inevitable, is just as harmful to our shared goals,” Mr Albanese said.

“The fate of our region is not pre-ordained. It never was. It never is. What we do here, what we decide here, matters — for us and the world. It always will.

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