Ukraine says launching counteroffensive now would cost too many lives

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says his country’s military needs more time to prepare an anticipated counteroffensive aimed at pushing back Russian occupying forces.

Mr Zelenskyy said in an interview broadcast on Thursday by the BBC that it would be “unacceptable” to launch the assault, which has been expected for weeks, now, because too many lives would be lost.

“With [what we have] we can go forward and be successful,” Mr Zelenskyy said in the interview, according to the BBC.

“But we’d lose a lot of people. I think that’s unacceptable,” he was quoted as saying.

The interview was reportedly carried out in Kyiv with public service broadcasters who are members of Eurovision News, including the BBC.

“So we need to wait. We still need a bit more time,” Mr Zelenskyy was quoted as saying.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has been counting on reducing the war to a so-called frozen conflict, with neither side able to dislodge the other, Mr Zelenskyy said, according to the BBC.

He ruled out surrendering territory to Russia in return for a peace deal.

While a counterattack was possible as the weather in Ukraine improved, there has been no word on when it might happen.

Mr Zelenskyy’s remarks could be a red herring to keep the Russians guessing, and ammunition supply difficulties faced by both sides have added more uncertainty.

A claim by the Ukrainian military on Wednesday that it had advanced up to two kilometres around the hotly contested eastern city of Bakhmut brought speculation the counteroffensive was already underway.

But Serhii Cherevatyi, spokesman for Ukraine’s Operational Command East, told The Associated Press the attack was not the “grand counteroffensive, but it’s a harbinger showing that there will be more such attacks in the future”.

NATO says Russia has the advantage in numbers

Over the winter, the conflict became bogged down in a war of attrition with both sides relying heavily on bombardment of each other’s positions.

A counteroffensive is a major challenge, requiring the Ukrainian military to orchestrate a wide range of capabilities, including providing ammunition, food, medical supplies and spare parts, strung along potentially extended supply lines.

The front line extends more than 1,000 kilometres.

The Kremlin’s forces are deeply entrenched in eastern areas of Ukraine with layered defensive lines reportedly up to 20 kilometres deep.

Kyiv’s counteroffensive would likely face minefields, anti-tank ditches and other obstacles.

Ukraine’s Western allies have sent the country 65 billion euros ($105.5 billion) in military aid to help thwart the Kremlin’s ambitions, and with no peace negotiations on the horizon the alliance is gearing up to send more.

Ukraine has been receiving advanced Western weapons, including tanks and air defences, and Western training for its soldiers.

Military analysts have warned Mr Putin was hoping the West’s costly support for Kyiv will begin to fray.

A senior NATO official said that in the coming months of the war, Ukraine will have the edge in quality but Russia has the upper hand in quantity.

“The Russians are now starting to use very old materiel, very old capabilities,” Admiral Bob Bauer, chair of the NATO Military Committee, told reporters late on Wednesday in Brussels.

“The Russians will have to focus on quantity.

“Larger number of conscripts and mobilised people. Not well trained. Older materiel, but large numbers, and not as precise, not as good as the newer ones.”

The Kremlin wants Kyiv to acknowledge Russia’s sovereignty over Crimea and also recognise September’s annexation of the Ukrainian provinces of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia.

Ukraine has rejected the demands and ruled out any talks with Russia until its troops pull back from all occupied territories.

Kremlin acknowledges ‘very difficult’ campaign

 A Ukrainian unit said on Wednesday it had routed a Russian brigade near the stronghold of Bakhmut in an incident underlining the task facing the Kremlin as it carries out what it calls a “very difficult” military operation.

The unit’s claim appeared to buttress comments by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner private army, who on Tuesday said the Russian brigade had abandoned its positions in Bakhmut, Moscow’s primary target in its winter offensive and scene of the bloodiest ground combat in Europe since World War II.

Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, who heads Ukraine’s ground forces, said Russian units in some parts of Bakhmut had retreated by up to 2km as the result of counter attacks. He gave no details.

Reuters was unable to independently confirm the situation on the ground.

Wagner units have led a months-long Russian assault on the eastern city, suffering heavy losses, but Ukrainian forces said the offensive was stalling.

“The special military operation continues. This is a very difficult operation, and, of course, certain goals have been achieved in a year,” Tass new agency quoted Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov as telling a Bosnian Serb television channel.

“We managed to beat up the Ukrainian military machine quite a bit,” said Mr Peskov, citing Russian missile strikes in Ukraine.

“This work will continue”.

Mr Peskov said he had no doubt that Bakhmut “will be captured and will be kept under control”.

He also said the Russian campaign in eastern Ukraine was proceeding slowly because Russia “is not waging war”.

“Waging war is a completely different matter — it means complete destruction of infrastructure, it means complete destruction of cities,” he said.

Moscow has repeatedly explained its lack of advances on the battlefield as an effort to protect civilians, but those claims have been proven false.

“We are trying to preserve infrastructure and preserve human lives,” Mr Peskov said.

Mr Peskov’s comments did not address claims that Russia’s 72nd Separate Motor-rifle Brigade had abandoned positions on the south-western outskirts of Bakhmut.

In a statement, Ukraine’s Third Separate Assault Brigade said: “It’s official. Prigozhin’s report about the flight of Russia’s 72nd Independent Motorized Rifle Brigade from near Bakhmut and the ‘500 corpses’ of Russians left behind is true.”

A Russian brigade is typically formed of several thousand troops.

Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Malyar wrote on Telegram that pro-Kyiv units had not lost a single position in Bakhmut on Wednesday.

Wires/ABC