Upsets − at least according to seed − delivered chaos to the opening round of the NBA playoffs.
In the Eastern Conference, either a five seed (New York Knicks) or an eight seed (Miami Heat) will play in the conference finals, and in the Western Conference, either a six seed (Golden State Warriors) or a seven seed (Los Angeles Lakers) will play in the conference finals.
The top seed in the East (Milwaukee) and the two and three seeds in the West (Memphis, Sacramento) have been eliminated.
Now, eight remain in the conference semifinals where for the first time since the NBA increased the number of playoff teams to 16 in 1984, one of every seed (1-8) is represented in the second round.
Here’s how we rank those teams, from bottom to top, after the first round:
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8. Boston
The Celtics made their series against Atlanta much more difficult than was necessary. Boston talked about not having letdowns and keeping their focus, and it did the opposite in Game 3 and Game 5 losses. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum carry the offense, but the Celtics also need Derrick White, Marcus Smart, Malcolm Brogdon and Robert Williams plus solid defense against Sixers MVP finalist Joel Embiid if they want to return to the conference finals.
7. New York
The Knicks were impressive against the Cavs, which was supposed to be one of the best series in the first round. Instead, it was a five-game cakewalk for the Knicks. The Knicks cranked up the defensive pressure but will need more offense from Jalen Brunson, RJ Barrett and Julius Randle, who reinjured his ankle in Game 5. Taking on a Heat team with a championship coach, experience and resiliency won’t be easy.
6. Golden State
Discount the Warriors at your own peril. Regardless of their sixth seed, the Warriors know how to win in the playoffs, led by Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green. Combine that one-two-three punch with Jordan Poole, Andrew Wiggins, Gary Payton II and Kevon Looney, all who played on last season’s championship team, and the Warriors are dangerous. Add coach Steve Kerr’s experience and a strong coaching staff – will anyone be surprised if Golden State makes it to the conference finals?
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5. Los Angeles Lakers
Just like the Warriors with their core group, when a team has LeBron James and Anthony Davis, the possibilities extend beyond what’s normal for a No. 7 seed. The Lakers’ up-and-down season hit its rise at the right time. Their calling card is defense since revamping their roster at the trade deadline, and it paid off with a mad dash to the postseason and then a series win against the second-seeded Memphis Grizzlies. This is the best the Lakers have played all season.
4. Phoenix
The Suns put up points, and the Suns give up points. Even though their first-round series ended in five games, the Clippers made games close without Paul George and without Kawhi Leonard for the final three games of the series. Though they haven’t played many games together since the blockbuster deal for Kevin Durant at the trade deadline, Devin Booker, Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton and Durant are tough to defend. Can they get enough stops on the other end?
3. Philadelphia
The only team to sweep an opponent in the first round, the Sixers dominated the inferior Brooklyn Nets behind the play of Tyrese Maxey (21.8 points per game, 50% on 3), James Harden (17.3 ppg, 8.8 assists per game), Tobias Harris (20.3 ppg, 8.3 rebounds per game) and Embiid (20 ppg, 11.3 rpg), who missed the final game of the series with a sprained right knee. It’s unknown if Embiid will be available at the start of the series, and if he does play it will be through injury against Boston.
2. Miami Heat
The Heat took out the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks in five games, winning the final three games of the series with better execution offensively and defensively and with the outstanding play of Jimmy Butler, who scored 56 points in Game 4 and 42 points in Game 5. If Playoff Jimmy continues his will to win, and the Heat continue to shoot much better in the playoffs than they did in the regular season, they will be headed to the Eastern Conference finals again.
1. Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets took care of Minnesota in five games, but not without difficulty in a couple. Still, their offense was top-notch with six players averaging in double figures in points, including 27.2 from Jamal Murray and 26.2 from Nikola Jokic, who also posted 12.4 rebounds, 9.0 assists and 1.2 steals per game. Guarding Phoenix’s explosive offense presents problems for the Nuggets, but this is the challenge we’ve been waiting to see for Denver.
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