Here are the questions that will define it:
Everything trickles down from one, central question: How much confidence do the Clippers have in continuing to build their championship aspirations around star wings Kawhi Leonard and Paul George? When salary and luxury tax payments are combined, team owner Steve Ballmer paid about $350 million for a first-round exit, according to a person with knowledge of the team’s financials. That number will rise to about $375 million next season — and that doesn’t account for a starting point guard and backup center, with both Russell Westbrook and Mason Plumlee unrestricted free agents.
Ballmer’s appetite to continue paying that much is likely tied into his evaluation of the current team’s potential — but injuries have kept that potential from being seen.
“They’re in a really tricky situation,” a rival executive said.
In four seasons together Leonard and George have played 142 games, with a record of 96-46. It’s proof they can win at a high rate when on the floor, and their individual play this season encouragingly returned to all-NBA production — but how dependable they are to actually play together is a question on which hinges hundreds of millions of dollars.
Contract extensions can be offered to Leonard starting July 12 and to George starting Sept. 1, according to a person with knowledge of their extension dates. Current estimates peg the cost of those extensions at $220 million over a maximum of four years. Will such extensions be offered pro forma, or will the uncertainty surrounding their dependability lead the team to hesitate and let their current contracts play out? Leonard and George are on essentially expiring contracts, with both able to enter free agency in 2024 if they decline player options. If the team decides a different core gives them a better shot at extending their championship window — and there has been no indication yet that is their stance — the clock would begin ticking on whether they would try to trade either.
Will Leonard’s knee injury lead him to miss any part of the 2023-24 regular season? Leonard injured his right knee during Game 1 of the Suns series and played through the injury, which was reportedly a torn meniscus, for the second game, only to miss the final three out of an abundance of caution. News of the injury hit Leonard “real hard,” George said.
“It’s got to be a reason why he’s out,” George said.
A key question confronting the team is how many more miles it believes Leonard can put on his right leg. It’s the same leg in which he suffered a quadriceps injury in San Antonio and the same right knee in which he tore the anterior cruciate ligament in 2021. One reason for optimism is how strongly Leonard bounced back this season, his first since returning from ACL surgery.
“I think I got a lot of good years in me,” George said Tuesday. “I know Kawhi thinks he’s got a lot of good years in him.”
The Clippers are always active in search of roster upgrades, but how far can they realistically go with their retooling? Miles over the salary cap with 10 players on guaranteed contracts for next season, their options are limited in free agency to bring back a player like Westbrook. George called Westbrook the point guard the team needs going forward. Coach Tyronn Lue wants him back, too. Yet Westbrook’s promising play since signing in February could lead to more lucrative offers than the exception the team has at its disposal to offer, which is expected to be worth around $4 million.
They could be left to seek upgrades around the margins because taking a big swing at another impact player will be difficult. They are still bereft of draft assets to dangle in front of other teams, and the value of their players is in the eye of the beholder. The team signed numerous players to contracts worth between $10 million and $20 million annually in recent seasons, believing that, at worst, the players could be enticing trade ballast. But outside of wing Terance Mann, interest from other teams is said to be currently cool. Along with point guard and backup center, addressing their power forward position is a key decision after Marcus Morris Sr., Nicolas Batum and Robert Covington either received spotty playing time or produced inconsistently. All are on expiring contracts.
What does the future hold for Lue? Asked directly Tuesday whether he expected to coach the Clippers next season, Lue answered, “Yes, sir.” Lue also said he and his staff would take a break then “come back and just try to be better than we were this year.” The direct answer came after he began his postgame news conference with an emotional introduction in which he thanked members of the organization for his three-year run. It also followed a season in which Lue was frequently frustrated by the unpredictability of knowing which players would be available to play and how often, and the communication with the front office on that topic.
“I’m proud of every guy in the locker room, scrap and compete every night,” Lue said. “That is all you can ask for when you are shorthanded. You take the two best players off of anybody’s team, they’re not going to win. I don’t care how you look at it. They’re not going to do it.”
At times during the season, when multiple players were on minutes limits, Lue was asked to coach off an index card that outlined preferred rotation patterns. Asked in March whether medical advancements had allowed some players to get better with age, Lue referenced load management.
“It’s two words, I don’t want to hear it,” he said.
The story of the Clippers in 2022-23 was that they rarely got a chance to see it, their full potential. Their answers this summer could decide what that potential could look like.