The Los Angeles Times spoke with NBA scouts, under condition of anonymity because they are not allowed to speak publicly on such matters, about the keys for the matchup and what to watch for when Game 1 begins Sunday at 5 p.m. PDT.
“Everything favors Phoenix in the series, just because of these two factors — Phoenix has the home-court advantage and the Clippers don’t have PG [Paul George] to offset Kevin Durant and Devin Booker,” one Eastern Conference scout said. “I mean, you got to have two dudes against them. You got to have two of them. I think it’s going to be too much for the Clippers in the end.”
Slowing Durant, who produced the first regular season in NBA history of at least 55% shooting on all field-goal attempts, 40% shooting on three-pointers and 90% accuracy at the free-throw line, will be predicated by making him take difficult shots. Yet limiting point guard Chris Paul and Booker from getting to their preferred shooting spots is just as much of a challenge.
“You go into any series with Paul knowing he wants to get to his right hand as much as possible, and he’s going to want to use his dribble to operate around the right elbow whenever possible,” said one Western Conference scout.
Few players take more long mid-range jumpers than Paul, who shot 46% on those shots and also made 50% of his shots in the short mid-range area, according to Cleaning the Glass.
Booker, meanwhile, also wants to get to the elbow, but he is comfortable working out of the post. He is more prone to driving left, and with defenses focusing on Paul and Durant, will move around and relocate around the perimeter for shots just as defenders turn their heads. One way to make his offense more challenging, the West scout said, was to close out on him properly.
“I know it’s going to be more challenging with Paul [George] out but the Clippers have to close out physically by sticking to Booker,” the scout said. “They cannot afford to let him fly by them on the way into the paint and force the defense to rotate.”
The focus on defending Phoenix was simple, a second Eastern Conference scout said: Without the offensive contributions of George, who is still rehabbing a sprained right knee as the series begins, and with a defense that ranked 19th in opponent field-goal accuracy since the All-Star break, the Clippers could be forced to play catch-up.
“Obviously, Kawhi is a beast and he has been on his game late in the season. But who is going to step up besides Kawhi? That’s the big question,” the second Eastern scout said.
Clippers coach Tyronn Lue has been known to “pull a damn rabbit out of his hat,” the scout said. “But I just think it’s going to be too much for the Clippers. Phoenix is fully powered.”
Times reporter Broderick Turner contributed to this report.