League leaders Arsenal’s 2-2 draw at Liverpool on Sunday has seemingly opened the door for reigning champions Manchester City in what is becoming a dramatic title race.
While the Gunners, who are chasing their first title since 2004 now have a six point gap over City, Pep Guardiola’s side have a game in hand and host Mikel Arteta’s team on 26 April in what could be the decisive fixture.
City also have a superior goal difference – currently 48 to Arsenal’s 43 – which could became a factor.
While Arsenal have just eight fixtures remaining, City are still in the hunt for the FA Cup and Champions League, and could have a packed schedule between now and the end of the season.
They could play as many as 16 games before the end of the season.
According to data company Nielsen’s Gracenote’s simulations, City are now favourites with a 56% chance of lifting the trophy, while Arsenal’s chances are 44%.
Arsenal have not beaten City in the Premier League since December 2015 and their last top-flight win at the Etihad was in January 2015.
The sides have already met twice this season, with City winning 1-0 in the FA Cup in January and 3-1 in the league in February.
But Arsenal may have history on their side.
According to Opta, 13 sides in the top-flight have had 73 or more points after 30 games (when adapted to 3 points for a win) and only two of these have failed to go on and win the title – Manchester United in 2011-12 and Liverpool in 2018-19. However, less reassuringly for Arsenal fans, it was City who ultimately finished champions on both those occasions.
City, though, are specialists at this stage of the season.
They have collected 145 points in the last 10 matches of the last six seasons combined – more than any other team.
Premier League run-in
| Arsenal | Man City |
| Bayern Munich (h – Champions League QF) 11 April | |
| Leicester (h) 15 April | |
| West Ham (a) 16 April | |
| Bayern Munich (a – Champions League QF) 19 April | |
| Southampton (h) 21 April | |
| Sheffield United (FA Cup semi-final) 22 April | |
| Man City (a) 26 April | Arsenal (h) 26 April |
| Chelsea (h) 29 April | |
| Fulham (a) 30 April | |
| West Ham (h) 3 May | |
| Newcastle (a) 7 May | Leeds (h) 7 May |
| Brighton (h) 14 May | |
| Potential CL semi-final 9/10 May | |
| Everton (a) 14 May | |
| Potential CL semi-final 16/17 May | |
| Nottingham Forest (a) 20 May | Chelsea (h) 20 May |
| Wolves (h) 28 May | Brentford (a) 28 May |
| Brighton (a) TBC because of FA Cup participation | |
| Potential FA Cup final 3 June | |
| Potential CL final 10 June |
