It’s typically not hard to identify the buyers at quarterback in a given NFL draft. Just look to the top of the order.
Landing a franchise passer on a contract bound to remain well below market for four to five years has proven to be one of the quickest ways for teams to vault themselves to the ranks of the contenders. That dynamic has helped propel players at the position up draft boards, with 14 signal-callers hearing their names called in the top five picks in the last 10 years.
And after teams warded off the quarterback hysteria in 2022, this year’s draft looks destined to be a return to form. Four prospects – Alabama’s Bryce Young, Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud, Florida’s Anthony Richardson and Kentucky’s Will Levis – look to be virtual locks for the first round, with Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker hovering as a potential wild card. Several of the buyers are also evident, as the Carolina Panthers traded up to the No. 1 slot, and the Houston Texans (No. 2), Indianapolis Colts (No. 4) and Las Vegas Raiders among the teams potentially in the market.
But there are several other teams further back on Day 1 that could be poised to make a move, especially if a marquee name begins to tumble.
Seattle Seahawks
Under Pete Carroll’s watch, the Seahawks have only selected one quarterback – seventh-rounder Alex McGough in 2018 – since the team scooped up Russell Wilson in the third round of the 2012 draft. Wilson was dealt to the Denver Broncos last spring, though, and his ensuing struggles in the fall helped set up Seattle with the franchise’s highest pick (No. 5 overall) in 15 years, marking a rare opportunity to make a splash at the all-important position.
Carroll and Co. haven’t been shy about their interest in exploring their options, as the team has posted selfies of the staff with each of the top four passers at their pro days. The Seahawks also made clear that re-signing NFL Comeback Player of the Year Geno Smith wouldn’t preclude the team from investing heavily in a young signal-caller.
“That opportunity is absolutely there,” Carroll said in March. “We can do whatever we need to do, which is a whole other discussion that’s really exciting. The coaches are working at it, and the scouts are working at it to try to position this thing – when you’re at five, this is different than what we’re used to seeing.”
Seattle would have clear incentive for a smokescreen here, as getting another team to trade up to No. 3 to select a quarterback would clear the path for Carroll and GM John Schneider to have their pick of the best prospects at every other position – including Alabama pass rusher Will Anderson. And for a coach with an avowed commitment to the run game, going all in behind center might seem like an antithetical move.
Still, Carroll has long been obsessed with the notion of outliers. Richardson – the 6-4, 244-pound unicorn who can rip through a defense with his arms or his legs – certainly qualifies as that. In an offense that sizzled early with the deep passing game before falling off later in the year, maybe a dual-threat option who can punish teams for sitting back would help take the attack to the next level.
Of course, with the Indianapolis Colts standing at No. 4, the Seahawks might not even get to weigh Richardson as a viable option unless they leapfrog to the No. 3 slot themselves. If the opportunity doesn’t materialize, Carroll should find quick comfort with a top-tier defensive player.
Detroit Lions
Much like the Seahawks, the Lions have the luxury of not needing to force a quarterback selection with a mid-career starter coming off an impressive season. But there’s a similar now-or-never pressure for this young team on the brink of its first playoff berth in seven years, as reaching that level would also put the organization out of range for finding a franchise passer for the foreseeable future.
GM Brad Holmes has been unwavering in his remarks about Jared Goff, saying the seven-year veteran is the unquestioned starter and “our guy” after piloting an offense that finished fourth in total offense and fifth in scoring. Still, with Goff there will always be a lingering question: Can his team resist attempting to upgrade from caretaker to catalyst?
With the Nos. 6 and 18 overall picks in his pocket thanks to the Los Angeles Rams’ woeful campaign in the second year after the Matthew Stafford trade, Holmes now must choose whether to follow the bold path his former team embarked on en route to a Super Bowl.
Richardson or Levis would face a tall task if asked to step in right away, but either one could sit behind Goff for a year while honing his skills and adapting to the pro game. And it would be hard to ignore the playmaking potential that could be unlocked by turning the attack over to a prolific downfield thrower with the running ability to keep defenses off balance.
If Holmes resists a quarterback in the first round, maybe he is drawn to a developmental option with one of his three selections on Day 2.
Tennessee Titans
Ran Carthon refused to use the word “rebuild” to describe the Titans’ plans, but it should be apparent that a new general manager unafraid of turnover likely isn’t looking to stand pat indefinitely at the game’s most important position.
Carthon has been reserved in his remarks about Ryan Tannehill’s future with the team, saying the 11-year veteran is “under contract for us” and a Titan “right now.” With the final year of Tannehill’s contract coming in at $27 million with no guarantees, Tennessee certainly hasn’t done much to tie itself down for the long term. Meanwhile, 2022 third-rounder Malik Willis might be on shaky ground as the developmental project of a bygone regime.
Where does that leave Tennessee this year? At No. 11, the Titans would need one of the top four passers to undergo a slight slide for any to become a legitimate consideration. Carthon could trade up to No. 3 to try to land either Richardson or Levis, but such a jump would likely cost him at least next year’s first-rounder. That’s hardly an ideal spot for a franchise that could be trending toward a rather expansive roster reconfiguration.
Even with a top selection in hand, it can be difficult for a general manager to tie himself to a rookie quarterback pick in his first draft. Carthon could easily use his opening selection on a wide receiver or offensive linemen, opting to rework the team’s larger outlook before pushing his chips in on a passer. But such a move for a timeline-altering addition can’t be ruled out just yet.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
If any of the top passers fall past the Titans, look out. There might not be a logical landing spot for any of them until the Buccaneers are on the clock at No. 19.
With a quarterback room consisting of untested third-year pro Kyle Trask and Baker Mayfield, the former No. 1 pick who will be playing for his fourth team in three seasons, Tampa Bay hardly looks settled at the position. Still, Todd Bowles is tempering expectations for Tom Brady’s successor, making it clear the organization is not expecting the next signal-caller to be a world-beater.
“You don’t need to be the guy; you need to rely on the 10 guys around you,” Bowles said last week at the NFL annual league meeting. “You don’t need to be the guy. We are not looking for a guy to come in here and be Superman.”
That doesn’t necessarily sound like a team poised to make a significant investment in a young passer. But with Mayfield amounting to little more than a low-cost flier and Trask having thrown just nine passes in two years, Tampa Bay can’t tune out possible long-term solutions. And as the reigning NFC South champions again facing an underwhelming division, the Buccaneers can’t be certain that they will be drafting high enough next year to land a premier talent behind center.
Even if Levis is available, his gambling style might be difficult for the offensively conservative Bowles to tolerate. Hooker could be better the better fit as a rhythmic distributor from the pocket. Ultimately, however, the Buccaneers might be more inclined to add assistance for Mayfield or Trask – especially along a makeshift offensive line – and take a developmental quarterback on Day 2 or 3.
Minnesota Vikings
The furthest back of this group at No. 23 in the draft order, the Vikings seemingly might not have either the means nor the urgency to pounce on a first-round passer. But despite Kirk Cousins leading the team to a 13-4 mark in 2022, Minnesota opted to restructure the 11-year veteran’s contract rather than reach an extension on a deal set to expire after next season.
And while general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has reiterated his belief that Cousins, 34, meets the “first threshold” of being “good enough” to win, he has left the door open for the team to pivot to a different kind of signal-caller.
“How long does (Cousins) meet that threshold? … Is there a chance to add somebody maybe with different skill sets?” Adofo-Mensah said at the NFL scouting combine. “Those are all questions we gotta answer, so there’s not one right way.”
Levis, a devil-may-care downfield passer, certainly would qualify as having a different skill set than that of the typically restrained Cousins. It would likely take a precipitous fall (or a costly trade up by Minnesota), however, for the strong-armed quarterback to come within striking range of the Vikings.
A more realistic target might be Hooker, who could take what amounts to a redshirt year as a rookie as he recovers from a torn ACL suffered last November. But with no second-round pick after last year’s T.J. Hockenson trade, Adofo-Mensah likely needs to decide between going all in if he’s to pursue the position in the draft or waiting another year to re-evaluate.
Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz on Twitter @MikeMSchwartz.