The outlook for the global economy is likely to remain weak in the medium term amid heightened risks to financial stability, according to International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.
“We expect 2023 to be another challenging year, with global growth slowing to below 3 percent as scarring from the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and monetary tightening weigh on economic activity,” Georgieva said on Sunday at a conference in China. “Even with a better outlook for 2024, global growth will remain well below its historic average of 3.8 percent,” she said.
“It is also clear that risks to financial stability have increased,” Georgieva said. “At a time of higher debt levels, the rapid transition from a prolonged period of low-interest rates to much higher rates — necessary to fight inflation — inevitably generates stresses and vulnerabilities, as evidenced by recent developments in the banking sector in some advanced economies.”
Policymakers have acted decisively in response to threats to financial stability, helping ease market stress to some extent, she said. But “uncertainty is high, which underscores the need for vigilance,” she added.
Georgieva also warned about risks of geo-economic fragmentation, which she said “could mean a world split into rival economic blocs — a ‘dangerous division’ that would leave everyone poorer and less secure. Together, these factors mean that the outlook for the global economy over the medium term is likely to remain weak,” she said.
Georgieva spoke during the second day of the China Development Forum in Beijing. The three-day annual event is a social mixer of politics and business, bringing together members of the Chinese Politburo with dozens of CEOs from Western companies like Siemens, Mercedes-Benz and Allianz.
“Fortunately, the news on the world economy is not all bad. We can see some ‘green shoots,’ including in China,” Georgieva said, adding that Beijing is set to account for around a third of the global growth this year.