How French pensions revolt could wreck his presidency – POLITICO

PARIS — French President Emmanuel Macron will face a moment of reckoning Thursday as lawmakers gear up for a final vote on the government’s deeply unpopular pension reform.

The controversial bill, a centerpiece of Macron’s second term, has sparked weeks of nationwide protests led by trade unions and faced intense criticism from both the far left and the far right in the National Assembly.

The French president wants to increase the legal age of retirement to 64 from 62 and extend contributions for a full pension in an effort to balance the accounts of France’s state pensions system — among the most generous in the world. According to projections from France’s Council of Pensions Planning, the finances of the pensions system are balanced in the short term but will go into deficit in the long term.

Despite government concessions on various aspects of the bill in recent weeks, opposition to the reform remains very high, with polls saying two-thirds of French citizens oppose it.

Speculation is running high that Macron might not have enough support in the National Assembly, and may choose a constitutional maneuver to bypass parliament — in a move that could unleash a political storm in France.

On Thursday, the French Senate and the National Assembly are expected to cast a crucial vote on the second reading of the bill, after the Senate voted in favor last week. The outcome will determine the shape of Macron’s second term and stands to bear heavily on his legacy.

The worst case: Macron loses the vote in parliament

Losing the parliamentary vote would be a stunning defeat for the French president, who pinned his bid for a second term on his promises to reform France’s pensions system. But political commentators have been speculating in recent days that Macron’s Renaissance party doesn’t have enough votes to pass the bill.

The French president lost its absolute majority in the National Assembly in parliamentary elections last June. He has since been forced into making ad-hoc deals with MPs from France’s conservative party Les Républicains. But the once-mighty conservatives appear split on the reform, despite assurances this week from their leader Olivier Marleix that there was “a clear majority” backing the bill.

A defeat in parliament would have seismic and long-term repercussions for Macron’s second term and it is likely that the president’s trusted lieutenant Prime Minister Elizabeth Borne would have to resign in such a scenario. Party heavyweights however say they will not shy away from seeking a vote.

“There will be a vote, we want a vote, everyone must take its responsibilities,” said Aurore Bergé, leader of the Renaissance group in the National Assembly.

“There can be an accident … we’ll manage it as we can,” admitted Jean-Paul Mattei, a centrist MP who belongs to Macron’s coalition, with reference to a defeat in parliament.

However, this is the most unlikely scenario as expectations are that the government will bypass a vote if they sense that they are short on votes.

Pretty bad: Macron bypasses parliament and loses credibility

In the face of a potential defeat in the National Assembly, Macron has a nuclear option: invoke article 49.3 of the French constitution. This mechanism allows the government to force through legislation without submitting it to a vote.

While the constitutional maneuver may seem like an easy way out, it’s a highly risky move as it allows lawmakers to table a motion of no confidence within 24 hours. Macron’s government has faced down motions of no confidence in the past but the stakes are much higher this time around.

Beyond surviving a motion of no-confidence, Macron and Borne will also come under fire for refusing to submit to the democratic process.

According to Frédéric Dabi, general director of the IFOP polling institute, the impact on public opinion if the government uses the 49.3 article as opposed to passing a tight vote in parliament would be “radically different.”

“Public opinions on the 49.3 article have changed … it is regarded as a tool to brutalize the National Assembly: it’s now seen as authoritarian instead of merely authoritative. People want more transparency, more democracy today,” he said.

France’s hardline unions would no doubt use this to stoke unrest and call for further strike action.

Trade union leader Laurent Berger has warned the government against using the 49.3 article, saying that it would be “incredible and dangerous.”

“Nobody can predict what will happen, the protest movement seems to be running out of steam, but if the government invokes article 49.3 it could be read as forcing the issue and may relaunch the protest movement,” said Dabi.

Still not great: Macron wins vote but faces mass protests

If the French president wins the vote in parliament, it’ll be seen as a victory but one that may completely drain his political capital, and whip up protests on the streets.

“It’ll be a victory for Macron, but it’ll only bear its fruit in the long term. In the short term, he’ll face a tense country where relations have become very strained,” said Chloé Morin, a writer and political analyst.

Trade union leader Berger has said that he would “take on board” the result of Thursday’s vote in parliament. But protests, which have been almost weekly since January, may continue nonetheless across the country in an effort to force the government into backing down and withdrawing the text.

Morin thinks it is unlikely there will be “an explosion of protests” after the vote as people are resigned to seeing it pass.

“However, the protest movement might become more radical with lightning protests or sabotages, led by a minority in the citizens’ movement,” said Morin.

In October last year, industrial action in France’s refineries led to nationwide shortages at petrol stations, forcing the government to intervene in what was seen as Macron’s biggest challenge since his re-election last year.

There are dangerous precedents for Macron too. In December 2019, the government was forced to abandon a new green tax when faced with the explosive Yellow Vests protests that shook the political establishment.