The Russian military has too many deficiencies — including heavy casualties and an inability to replenish weapons and ammunition — to make “major territorial gains” in Ukraine this year, the top U.S. intelligence official told a Senate committee Wednesday.
Avril Haines, the Director of National Intelligence, also cited leadership problems and low morale among the troops as obstacles for the Kremlin in its “grinding, attritional war.”
Russia won’t be able to continue its current offensive in the coming months unless it implements another draft and finds a source for a large amount of ammunition, Haines said, “And consequently, they may fully shift to holding and defending territories they occupy.”
Haines also said China’s partnership with Russia has limitations but is getting stronger despite the international reproach the Kremlin has received for invading Ukraine.
“We don’t see them becoming allies the way we are with allies in NATO, but nevertheless we do see increasing (cooperation) across every sector,” she said.
A threat assessment report released Wednesday by intelligence agencies said Russia does not want conflict with the U.S. and NATO, but that further military losses may prompt President Vladimir Putin to escalate the war to enhance his domestic standing.
MISSILES MAKE RUSSIAN JETS ‘WORTHLESS’: Russian student imprisoned for ‘fake news’: Live updates
Developing:
►U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres visited Kyiv on Wednesday for talks with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on extending an agreement that allows Ukraine to export grain from Black Sea ports and permits Russia to export food and fertilizers.
►Representatives of Finland and Sweden will meet with Turkish officials at NATO Headquarters on Thursday to discuss a path forward to full NATO membership for the two nations. Turkey wants Stockholm and Helsinki to take a tougher line against groups Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan blames for a 2016 coup attempt.
►Fearing the tables may eventually be turned on Americans, the Pentagon is standing in the way of the Biden administration cooperating with the investigation into Russian atrocities in Ukraine launched by the International Criminal Court in The Hague, the New York Times reported.
►Ukraine will receive more than 20 of the Leopard 2 tanks promised by European countries in the coming weeks, Germany’s Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said. Pistorius added that 18 of them would be coming from his country and three from Portugal.
MAPPING AN INVASION:Mapping and tracking Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
Mystery surrounds identity of soldier apparently executed on video
The identity of the Ukrainian soldier apparently executed in an unverified video that has circulated on social media remains a mystery, and it only broadened Wednesday.
The Ukrainian military’s general staff said Tuesday his name was Tymofii Shadura, but added the identification was based on preliminary information. Shadura had been missing for just over a month after disappearing during fighting in the Bakhmut area.
On Wednesday, a regional army command identified him as Oleksandr Matsiyevsky, citing his mother and fellow soldiers. Ukrainian journalist Yurii Butusov cited the same sources on a Facebook post in saying it was Matsiyevsky, adding that fellow members of the 163rd battalion visited his mother and got confirmation.
In the unauthenticated 12-second clip, an unarmed, uniformed man is seen standing in a wooded area and smoking a cigarette. Someone off-camera is heard speaking in Russian. The man then says, “Glory to Ukraine” and is hit by gunshots, falling into a shallow hole in the ground. A voice then says, “Die” and an expletive in Russian.
The video has evoked outrage across Ukraine, including from President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who vowed Monday: “We will find the killers.”
Ukraine denies a role in Nord Stream pipeline explosions
Ukraine on Wednesday denied reports that a pro-Ukraine group was involved in blowing up the Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea last year.
German media outlets, including the daily newspaper Die Zeit, reported investigators were able to largely reconstruct how the pipelines from Russia to Germany were sabotaged in September. Five men and a woman are believed to have used a yacht hired by a Ukrainian-owned company in Poland to carry out the attack.
The New York Times also reported Tuesday that U.S. officials reviewed intelligence suggesting a pro-Ukrainian group was linked to the blasts.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov described the claim as “a compliment for our special forces, but this is not our activity.”
Germany’s defense ministry voiced caution over media reports, and Russia also expressed doubt about them. The Kremlin dismissed the reports as a ruse, saying the U.S. was likely behind the blasts.
Pipes in the Nord Stream 1 and uncompleted 2 undersea gas lines from Russia to Germany were destroyed in the explosions. Russia had already cut off gas to Nord Stream 1, and it’s not clear whether Germany will want to repair it given the strained relations with the Kremlin.
NATO chief says Russia could take Bakhmut in ‘coming days’
Russia may soon seize the eastern Ukraine city of Bakhmut, but it would not mark a major turning point in the war, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said Wednesday. Stoltenberg said Russia is trying to overwhelm the area in and around Bakhmut with more troops despite taking massive casualties.
“What Russia lacks in quality, they try to make up in quantity,” Stoltenberg said. “They have suffered big losses, but at the same time, we cannot rule out that Bakhmut may eventually fall in the coming days.”
The owner of Russia’s Wagner Group mercenary squad, Yevgeny Prigozhin, claimed Wednesday that his troops have extended their gains in the Donbas region city. Even Ukraine’s daily military report issued Wednesday noted that “in the direction of Bakhmut, the Russians continue to advance, attempts to storm the city of Bakhmut continue.”
Ukraine Defense Ministry official Hanna Malyar, however, dismissed suggestions that Bakhmut would soon fall.
“There are a lot of expert opinions now,” she said. “But we can see from the situation that no matter how many predicted what will happen there, Bakhmut is still standing.”
Feds may seize of U.S.-made $25 million jet
Federal officials at Task Force KleptoCapture have gotten court permission to seize a $25 million Russian-owned Boeing passenger jet.
The task force said the plane’s owners were violating U.S. sanctions. KleptoCapture is a United States Department of Justice unit created in 2022 that enforces sanctions on Russian oligarchs in response to the Ukrainian invasion.
The plane is a private business jet version of the Boeing 737 models flown by Southwest, United and other airlines, and has left and entered Russia at least seven times in the past year, federal officials said. The sanctions ban the plane’s owners, PJSC Rosneft Oil Company, from taking it into Russia because it was made in the United States.
While federal officials have successfully seized yachts, bitcoin and other assets from Russian oligarchs, its ability to seize the plane remains uncertain: Officials said last they knew, the plane was in or on its way to Russia.
– Trevor Hughes
Ukraine defense chief wants more ammo, tanks to create ‘armored fist’
Ukraine needs more air defense power and a million rounds of ammunition to drive back the Russian invasion, Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said. Speaking at a meeting with EU defense ministers in Stockholm, Reznikov also emphasized the importance of more tanks to create an “armored fist” for a spring counteroffensive.
Western allies have supplied numerous tanks and ammunition to Ukraine, and Germany promised a week ago that it would significantly increase ammunition production. Contracts signed by NATO allies to produce more ammunition have improved the outlook for Ukraine, Stoltenberg said, adding “there is an enormous demand out there.”
The EU plans to provide Ukraine with more than $1 billion worth of ammunition from its stocks, but Reznikov said that’s about one-fourth the cost of the million rounds of artillery shells his country needs, according to the German DPA news agency.
Stoltenberg said NATO has supported Ukraine with about $158 billion in military, financial and economic aid since the start of the war, $68 billion of that coming in military assistance.
Contributing: The Associated Press
