One year ago today Russian tanks first rolled into Ukraine, smashing to within miles of Kyiv and prompting a heroic defense that has transformed the war into to a deadly slog with no end in sight.
A Ukraine offensive took back some occupied territory. Now Russia has cranked up an offensive in its efforts to claim Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region. Ukraine is expected to ignite its own offensive once modern tanks promised by the West become available.
“Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia. Never,” President Joe Biden declared from Kyiv on Feb. 21.
Both sides routinely claim gains but neither side has pushed the front line more than a few miles in any direction in recent months. Still, Dale Buckner sees a light at the end of the tunnel – for Ukraine.
Buckner is a retired Army colonel and CEO of McLean, Virginia-based Global Guardian, a firm that has helped thousands flee Ukraine. He says Ukrainian forces are inflicting crucial losses to Russia, and that the longer the war goes on, the more likely it is that Russia is defeated “with little to nothing to show for it in the end,” he says.
The United Nations estimates nearly 8 million refugees fled Ukraine since the invasion, 90% of them women and children, the U.N. High Commission on Refugees said. Fighting-age men are banned from leaving Ukraine.
“Every key metric of enduring warfare is to the Ukrainian’s advantage as we go into year two of the conflict,” Buckner told USA TODAY. “Morale, will, determination, commitment, combat power and most importantly, logistics.”
‘WE NEED TO KEEP LIVING’: What life is like for Ukrainians a year into Russia’s invasion
Developments:
►Neither side has released reliable numbers on their death toll, but estimates put the total at tens of thousands on each side. Last month, Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, estimated that “significantly” more than 100,000 have been killed or wounded on each side.
►Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will host an online Group of Seven summit meeting Friday with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
►A demonstration Saturday in Berlin will promote a leftist “manifesto for peace” in Ukraine and protest the government’s decision to supply Ukraine with tanks.
‘IT’S HARD BUT THEY’RE HOLDING ON’: On the ground in Ukraine, the war depends on U.S. weapons
Millions displaced by fighting in Ukraine-Russia war
The U.N. High Commission on Refugees said it and its nonprofit partners have conducted more than 650 humanitarian convoys, and it remains worried about the impact of war on Ukrainian children.
In particular, the UNHCR said in a report, it has concerns about the displacement of children who have left Ukraine for safety in other countries but who are now at risk for losing their culture while potentially facing trafficking and abuse. Within the country, the UNHCR said, it has concerns about access to education and socialization for children living in a war zone.
There were 7.9 million refugees from Ukraine recorded across Europe as of January 2023, and 90% of them women and children, the UNHCR said. Fighting-age men are banned from leaving Ukraine.
“The situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile with continuous violence and destruction, forcing the population to flee inside the country and abroad on a scale not seen in Europe for decades,” the commission said.
Near future not bright for either side in conflict
Jeff Levine, a former U.S. ambassador to anxious Russian neighbor Estonia, says he is confident that as long as Ukraine is willing to keep fighting the U.S., Europe and NATO will remain firmly behind the battered nation. But Levine warns that the near future likely will bring more of of the punishment Ukraine has experienced during the past year.
“Putin has been unable to turn the war into a ‘frozen conflict,’ which means he will continue his efforts to damage and destabilize Ukraine,” Levine said. “Until a combination of battlefield losses, Russian domestic opposition, economic sanctions, diplomatic isolation and international pariah-state status force him to abandon his effort.”
Buckner said Russia still has fire superiority and well-trained and equipped troops in the fight. But thus far there has been no sufficient buildup of Russian forces to execute a largescale offensive.
“At best, it will be a tit-for-tat exchange in the short term with neither side executing a decisive victory,” Buckner said.
‘WE WILL NEVER BE THE SAME’:Displaced Ukrainian children risk erosion in school, mental health
Drone footage shows devastation in Bakhmut
The Donbas region city of Bakhmut has been the scene of intense fighting for weeks. Drone video footage of Bakhmut shot for The Associated Press shows the longest battle of the war has turned the eastern Ukraine city into a ghost town. The footage, shot Feb. 13, shows no people. But Bakhmut had a prewar population 80,000,and authorities say thousands of residents have refused or been unable to evacuate. Entire rows of apartment buildings have been gutted; outer walls are left standing and the roofs and interior floors gone.
The struggle has become lore for Ukrainians. The track “Bakhmut Fortress” by Ukrainian band Antytila, has racked up more than 3.8 million views.
“Mom, I’m standing,” they sing. “Motherland, I’m fighting.”
Will tanks will be a game-changer?
Multiple Western nations led by the U.S. have agreed to provide Ukraine with tanks featuring technology superior to tanks produced and used by Russia. Buckner says tanks can be a game-changer, allowing the Ukrainians to go on the offensive again and break the stalemate that has existed since the fall, when Ukraine executed several counter attacks and took back large swaths of terrain.
Buckner says he believes the war will end with a negotiated settlement as the Russian military is drained by unsustainable personnel and equipment losses and Putin loses support at home.
“Western tanks will be a key factor over the long term, enabling the Ukrainians to win,” he said.
Anxiety remains high in country at war
Across Ukraine, residents remain stalwart, even though they’re constantly worried about their friends, family and the fate of their country, said Fabrice Martin of the international aid group CARE.
“There is this mix of strong determination and a will to resist, but the levels of anxiety are also very high,” said Martin, speaking with USA TODAY from Lviv, near the border with Poland.
Based in Switzerland, CARE works with volunteers, in particular Ukrainian women, to distribute food and other supplies from the front lines to cities far from the fighting. Martin said CARE moved its operations from Kyiv to Lviv, about a 7-10 hour train journey away, to help reduce the amount of time workers spent hiding from missile attacks. Still, he said, it’s clear no matter where you go in Ukraine that the war is never really that far away.
“You find yourself asking, ‘Am I going to have light when I switch on a lamp?’ It reminds you that you are a country at war,” he said. “The grab bag has to be ready. We have to adapt. But there is an acceptance of the risk. Because without that, you can’t work.”
Martin said he’s watched in amazement as many Ukrainians have rebuilt their social lives, despite the fighting, as soldiers are granted leave from the front lines, and cafes and bars have reopened and stabilized. But he said CARE is working carefully to help Ukrainians, especially children, deal with the trauma they are suffering daily. He said in past conflicts, disorders like PTSD have taken years to surface in kids, and CARE hopes to help Ukrainian children now, to help with longterm recovery.
He added that as a society at war, Ukraine is generally not a place where people immediately feel comfortable talking about mental health issues caused by the invasion, including children who are living in bomb shelters with no access to the playground equipment and little chance for consistent education.
“This type of support is exactly what the people need: Hope,” he said.
CARE has assisted about 1 million Ukrainians, and reports that the country has seen nearly 800 healthcare facilities damaged or destroyed, and more than 2,500 schools and other educational sites damaged or destroyed. CARE has used donations to help pregnant people, offered job counseling and language classes for people relocating outside Ukraine, and hired Ukrainian women to teach refugee children studying in Polish schools.
“The resilience of the Ukrainians is extremely high. They have a very high level of imagination and of finding solutions. They have an amazing capacity to adapt and continue running,” he said. “But you also have this social pressure where you can’t express your distress.”
Contributing: The Associated Press
A deeper dive
• ‘We need to keep living’: What life is like for Ukrainians a year into Russia’s invasion
• ‘It’s hard, but they’re holding on,’: On the ground in Ukraine, the war depends on U.S. weapons
• ‘We will never be the same’: Displaced Ukrainian children risk erosion in school, mental health
• ‘Kyiv stands strong’: Biden declares Putin ‘was wrong,’ marks one year of Russia’s war in Ukraine
• Putin suspends nuclear arms treaty while lashing out at West over Ukraine war