The moment reflected just how much had changed since Biden last spoke in that same palace complex in Poland, almost exactly 12 months ago and just days after Putin ordered his forces to cross the Ukrainian border and plunge Europe into war. Though the war shows no signs of abating, Biden stressed that Putin has already failed in his objective to seize Ukraine.
“One year ago, the world was bracing for the fall of Kyiv,” Biden said, “and I can report that Kyiv stands strong, it stands proud and it stands free.”
Nearly a year ago, Biden used his speech to convince European allies that helping Kyiv was not a futile exercise, imploring democracies to rally together and stand up to Putin’s militant authoritarianism. His message then was somber and grim, reflecting the uncertainty about Ukraine’s ability to repel a much larger foe. Though Putin’s initial lunge at Kyiv failed, there was a sense among military experts that Russia would, soon enough, overwhelm Ukraine.
That is no longer the case. Ukraine has held, having pushed the front back to the eastern and southern edges of the country. Led by Washington, the West has stayed in lockstep and funneled weapons and money to Kyiv, dealing one humiliating military setback after another to Moscow.
“When Russia invaded, it wasn’t just Ukraine being tested. The whole world faced a test for the ages,” Biden said. “Europe was being tested. America was being tested. NATO is being tested. All democracies are being tested. And the questions we face are as simple as they are profound: Would we respond, or would we look the other way?”
“One year later, we know the answer,” he said. “We did respond. We would be strong, we would be united, and the world would not look the other way.”
The atmosphere in Kubicki Arcades, part of Warsaw’s Royal Castle complex, reflected the change. In a moment that would have been unthinkable a year ago, the speech environment felt like a NATO pep rally. Flags from Ukraine, Poland and the U.S. lined the venue. Blue and yellow lights projected on the surroundings and an upbeat soundtrack — including Bruce Springsteen and Twisted Sister — blared in the hours before Biden addressed the crowd.
A year ago, Biden spoke at the palace in an almost-funereal atmosphere shortly after he held a somber meeting with Ukrainian refugees. This time, Biden arrived on the heels of his surprise visit to Kyiv. There, the president — wearing his trademark aviators — defiantly strutted with his Ukrainian counterpart in broad daylight, underscoring Putin’s inability to reach the capital.
On Tuesday, Putin offered the world a split screen — delivering a major speech in Moscow just hours before Biden spoke in Poland. The Russian leader provided his usual bluster about his war and again falsely claimed that NATO had been the aggressor, but his power seemed diminished, his threats hollow.
Putin spoke in front of a bored-looking audience of Russian elites, while Biden spoke in front of thousands, a crowd that cheered loudly at mentions of NATO. Though Putin was widely expected to use the one-year mark of the war later this week to announce a major escalation of the fight, all he did Tuesday was announce that Russia would suspend its participation in a nuclear treaty that it largely already ignored.
Biden returned to Poland, a nation that knows all too well the fight for democracy against larger oppressors, to declare that the conflict’s “principles and the stakes are eternal.” He thanked Poland for supporting the war effort and opening their arms to scores of Ukrainian refugees who streamed across the border seeking shelter and safety.
But Biden also warned that “hard days were ahead,” a nod to the fact that the war shows no signs of abating.
The fighting has become a fierce slog, with each side racking up heavy casualties. As the fighting continues to rage, both sides of the Atlantic fear that Russia is finding its footing, Ukraine may be overmatched in certain parts of the east and south, and the West’s pipeline of weapons will slow to a trickle.
Neither side had shown a willingness to bring a negotiated end to the fight. Putin has not abandoned his goal of toppling Kyiv, while Zelenskyy has indicated he will not bargain until Russia has left every inch of Ukraine — including Crimea, which Moscow has controlled since 2014.
Though the Russians have suffered heavy losses, they still have far more troops than Ukraine to send into combat, including ex-prisoners pushed into battle by the mercenary Wagner Group.
In recent weeks, Kyiv has relentlessly called for equipment it believes it needs to contend with a larger war. It has received a pledge of Western tanks, though most will not reach the battlefield for months or even years. But, to this point, Ukraine has been rebuffed in its ask for fighter jets. And as Russia renews its onslaught, fears have grown that Ukrainian forces could soon run dangerously low on ammunition.
In the best estimation of U.S. intelligence, Putin still believes that despite the setbacks his military has faced, he can wait for an inevitable break in Western resistance. But to this point, the transatlantic alliance — reinvigorated under Biden — has held.
“President Putin’s craven lust for land and power will fail, and the Ukrainian people’s love for their country will prevail,” Biden said. “Democracies of the world will stand guard of our freedoms today, tomorrow, and forever. That’s what’s at stake here — freedom.”