Feb. 13 (UPI) — The national average retail price for a gallon of gasoline has now dropped for two weeks straight, though this may mark the low point for the season, market analysts said Monday.
Travel club AAA reported the national average price at the pump dropped 2 cents during the weekend, from $3.43 for a gallon of regular unleaded on Friday to $3.41 per gallon on Monday.
Gasoline prices have been on something of a steady decline and remain both below month-ago and year-ago levels. Texas is the only state in the nation with an average price below the $3 mark, but just barely at $2.99 per gallon for Monday. A handful of its neighbors, however, are posting prices close to $3 per gallon.
Retail-level prices bucked trends in the broader commodity market. The price for Brent crude oil, the global benchmark for the price of oil, jumped more than 8% last week in response to the closure of pipelines in Turkey due to recent earthquakes and Russia’s announcement Friday that it would cut its own crude oil production by March.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s government said it would cut its crude oil production by March, a decision that helped spur a major rally in crude oil prices last week. Photo by Kremlin Pool / UPI
Brent was in something of a sell-off mode on Monday, however, showing a decline of nearly 0.9% at the start of the trading day in New York to hit $85.64 per barrel. That likely won’t last, however, as some analysts are pointing to $100 crude oil by the summer.
Retail-level gasoline prices should follow suit. Patrick DeHaan, the senior petroleum analyst at GasBuddy, said despite the downward trend in the national average, some states are already reporting higher prices in response to the upcoming seasonal shift in gasoline blends.
The gasoline made during the winter is cheaper than what’s made during the summer. The summer blend is more expensive because of the extra processing steps needed to keep it from evaporating.
“In addition, GasBuddy data shows that gasoline demand has risen for the third straight week, a trend that will likely continue as we gradually see temperatures warm and the heart of winter moves to the rearview,” DeHaan added.
Meanwhile, it’s expected to be a busy season of regular refinery maintenance, which should also contribute to higher prices at the pump. DeHaan said it’s not uncommon to see retail gasoline prices jump as much as 85 cents per gallon between March and Memorial Day, the unofficial start of the summer travel season.
Should that forecast hold, the national average price could be as high as $4.26 per gallon, but that won’t last. The federal government is predicting an average price of $3.39 per gallon for the year, down from the $3.97 average from 2022.