Arguably the most significant year in the history of men’s professional golf begins with a star-studded line-up in Hawaii this week.
A mark of how the landscape has altered is reflected by the fact that this traditional new year opener on the PGA Tour has attracted eight of the world’s top 10 players. The 39-man elite field is playing for $15m (£11.8m).
The inflated purse, for a line-up comprising last year’s tournament winners and the top 30 in the FedEx Cup, shows in the first week of 2023 that golf continues to be shaped by the arrival of LIV, the lucrative Saudi Arabia-funded breakaway tour.
It has attracted unprecedented riches and retaliatory investment by the established tours because LIV has destabilised this most traditional of sports like never before.
Golf is an unpredictable game at the best of times, never mind in a period of unprecedented turmoil, but here is a guide to what we might expect in the coming 12 months.
Big money for the biggest names
If the first week of the year is an indicator, the PGA Tour has grabbed the attention and, potentially, loyalty of its most important stars with gargantuan prize funds at marquee competitions.
The Tournament of Champions, which starts in Kapalua on Thursday, is worth almost double its purse of 12 months ago.
It is one of a dozen elevated tournaments (the others carry prize funds of at least $20m) aimed at bringing the best golfers together more regularly.
Leading players are allowed to miss one such event during the year but top dog Rory McIlroy is the only one to decide against competing on the Plantation Course.
The only other top-10 player missing this week is Open champion Cameron Smith, suspended from the PGA Tour for joining LIV Golf at the end of last summer.
Smith would have been defending champion after winning last year with a record score of 34 under par. The Australian will also miss a title defence at the PGA Tour’s flagship Players Championship in March, a tournament now worth $25m.
But look at the names in Hawaii this week. They include Olympic champion Xander Schauffele, his likely US Ryder Cup partner Patrick Cantlay and Japan’s Hideki Matsuyama as well as reigning major champions Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas and England’s Matt Fitzpatrick.
Where do LIV go from here?
A good question. Mexico is the obvious answer, with their first event of 2023 scheduled for Mayakoba from 24-26 February. But so far only seven of their intended 14 tournaments have been formally announced.
Last October, LIV boss Atul Khosla told us the calendar and new recruits would be announced by the end of 2022. Khosla then unexpectedly left his role as chief operating officer and no new playing recruits have been announced.
Many observers wondered whether Schauffele and Cantlay would defect and Matsuyama’s status as a Japanese superstar also puts him on LIV’s most wanted list. But so far, and perhaps significantly, they remain loyal to the PGA Tour.
Despite their $2bn budget, LIV’s future suddenly feels rather less certain than a couple of months ago. The coming weeks will be fascinating to see whether they can re-harness the undoubted momentum they acquired during much of 2022.
Where does this leave the DP World Tour?
In the shadows for much of the year, but with welcome periods in the spotlight.
The first of those comes later this month with two big weeks in the Middle East. There is a decent field in Abu Dhabi and McIlroy returns to action at the Dubai Desert Classic at the end of January.
But the most important date is in early February when the arbitration service Sport Resolutions rules on whether members of the circuit formerly known as the European Tour can be suspended for joining LIV.
The outcome will shape the men’s golfing year because if LIV players are allowed to continue to compete on the DP World Tour they will have access to world ranking points and qualification for the Ryder Cup.
If the decision goes in the tour’s favour then LIV is likely to become a less attractive proposition for potential defectors at a time when protracted legal proceedings involving the PGA Tour continue to rumble in the United States.
The majors
The big four events of the men’s calendar look stronger than ever right now because they are the only tournaments where all of the world’s best players can gather.
The Masters say LIV golfers are welcome, so Open champion Smith joins the fray at Augusta along with fellow defectors such as former Green Jacket winner Dustin Johnson and major champions Bryson DeChambeau and Brooks Koepka.
The majors are always the true barometer of golfing glory and we can expect the US PGA Championship at Oak Hill in May, June’s US Open at the Los Angeles Country Club and The Open at Royal Liverpool in July to be enhanced in significance this summer.
The Ryder Cup
Put a dozen Europeans against 12 Americans on any golf course with that little gold pot is up for grabs and it is a fantastic occasion.
That said, a US team without Dustin Johnson – who won five points out of five in the last match – is a weakened line-up for the match in Rome this autumn.
Indeed, as things stand, the US would be without DJ, DeChambeau and Koepka from the team that achieved America’s record breaking 19-9 win at Whistling Straits in 2021.
Europe would be minus Bernd Wiesberger, Paul Casey, Lee Westwood, Sergio Garcia and Ian Poulter from those on duty in Wisconsin. But, without LIV, how many of those would still be good enough to make Luke Donald’s team this September?
This was always going to be a transitional Ryder Cup for Europe. They look the less inconvenienced by LIV uncertainty.
A festival of golf
Whatever happens, there should be much to enjoy in the professional game this year and the women’s game has a chance step to the fore.
Key dates come in early June when the KPMG Women’s PGA is staged on the famed Lower Course at Baltusrol before the following month when the Women’s US Open goes to the spectacular Pebble Beach for the first time.
These are important steps in a growing trend to stage female majors on the grandest golfing stages. The AIG Women’s Open should feel very much at home on the Old Course at Walton Heath in August.
But the real highlight will come on 22-24 September in Andalucia when Europe go for a third consecutive Solheim Cup triumph, a week before their male counterparts look to win back the Ryder Cup.
That fortnight should prove a true festival of golf, with precious trophies but – refreshingly – not a penny or cent of prize money at stake.