GLENDALE, Ariz. — No. 3 TCU stunned No. 2 Michigan with a 51-45 win in the Fiesta Bowl to reach the College Football Playoff championship game against the winner of the Peach Bowl between No. 1 Georgia and No. 4 Ohio State.
TCU stormed out to a 21-6 halftime lead and then survived an epic run of scoring in the second half, responding to every one of Michigan’s scores with a series of explosive plays against one of the nation’s top-ranked defenses.
After Michigan drew with a field goal at 41-38 early in the fourth quarter, the Horned Frogs scored on a 76-yard catch-and-run down the right sideline and then added a field goal on the ensuing possession to become the first team to score 50 points against Michigan since Ohio State in 2019.
Beyond qualifying as an upset, the win is a huge moment for the Big 12, which was on the precipice of disaster with the loss of Oklahoma and Texas to the SEC but now has a team in the championship game for the first time. For Michigan, the loss is a stunning blow after completing one of the most impressive regular season in program history.
Here are three observations from the Frogs’ win:
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There is no more doubting TCU
The big questions entering the Fiesta Bowl:
Could TCU run the ball on Michigan? Could TCU stop Michigan’s running game? Most of all, could the Horned Frogs stand up to the physical nature of the Big Ten champions?
After stepping out to a big lead and answering every one of Michigan’s challenges in the second half, there are no more questions about the Frogs’ toughness or the team’s place among the best teams in the Bowl Subdivision.
TCU ran for 264 yards while holding the Wolverines to 180 yards on 40 carries, with 54 yards coming on a long run by Donovan Edwards on the game’s opening play. The pass rush harassed J.J. McCarthy and forced him to attempt throws into small windows, resulting in two interceptions returned for touchdowns.
And while the defense was worn down in the second half and eventually cratered, a frustratingly explosive blitz scheme helped the Frogs keep the Wolverines off balance and build that eventually insurmountable lead.
In the end, a team known for winning close games was prepared for Michigan’s inevitable comeback. In the third quarter alone, the two teams combined for 16 first downs, 44 points, 420 yards of offense and three turnovers. After both had seemed to flip momentum multiple times, the quarter ended with the game roughly in the same position: TCU led by 15 points at halftime and then 11 points heading into the fourth, 41-30.
At one point, the pair combined for 51 points in just over seven minutes of game time, exchanging haymakers in a playoff game almost without precedent in the format’s history. But TCU was ready — the Frogs have played four-quarters games all season while the Wolverines were in uncharted territory.
Max Duggan is imperfect but ends up delivering for TCU
The Heisman Trophy runner-up completed only 14 of 29 attempts for 225 yards with two scores and two interceptions, struggling at times with Michigan’s pressure and connecting in the Frogs’ downfield passing game.
But as during the Big 12 championship game, when he broke through late and took over the entire offense, Max Duggan delivered with the game on the line. His 76-yard touchdown pass to Quentin Johnson, delivered under extreme duress, pushed TCU ahead 48-38 after Michigan scored 14 points in under a minute.
He also played a huge part in the running game, as expected. Duggan finished with 57 yards on 15 carries with two touchdowns and helped loosen up the Michigan defense, which led to backup running back Emari Demarcado’s game-high 150 yards on 17 carries.
Overall, this is what we’ve come to expect from the senior, who has already announced this will be his final season. Throughout this magical year, TCU has leaned on Duggan to carry the load on offense; once again, he stepped up with a Heisman-worthy performance.
TCU pulls off the upset. But what happens next?
Beating the Wolverines as roughly a touchdown underdog might qualify as the biggest upset in the history of the playoff format. In doing so — and in the way they more than held up physically against the Big Ten champions — the Horned Frogs could be given more benefit of the doubt heading into the championship game against Georgia or Ohio State. But one thing won’t change: TCU will again be the underdog, and maybe by a double-digit margin should the Bulldogs race past the Buckeyes.
The physical aspect of the Fiesta Bowl win underscores one of the biggest misconceptions about TCU, which was viewed as a more finesse team rather than one capable of standing up to Michigan’s play on both sides of the line of scrimmage. And playing the Wolverines is a great introduction to what the Frogs would face against Georgia, for example, even if the Bulldogs seem to be on a different level than Michigan.
But almost regardless of the opponent, TCU will be taken much more seriously as a threat to win an unbelievably unexpected national championship after posting a combined 23-24 record in the four years before Dykes’ arrival last winter.
