When flames tore through the township of Rosebery in Tasmania’s west, locals received little warning.
Key points:
- A dry spring has led to above-normal fire potential across western Tasmania, according to the AFAC’s summer outlook
- The Bureau of Meteorology predicts warmer-than-average temperatures between January and March for the whole state
- The Tasmanian Volunteer Fire Brigades Association president says crews are as prepared as they can be for the season
It was a hot day — temperatures were in the 30s — allowing for the bushfire to quickly take hold, destroying the Mount Black Lodge hotel accommodation, severely damaging the local heritage centre and sparking spot fires near homes.
The fire came close to the town’s main employer, the MMG mine, which remains out of action after power was cut to the site.
If it was not for the efforts of around 40 firefighters and three firefighting aircraft, the impact could have been far worse.
The blaze was the state’s first real test this bushfire season, and with more hot and dry conditions predicted, Tasmanians are being urged to prepare.
What’s the forecast?
It is no surprise the first major bushfire this summer was on the west coast.
A dry spring has led to above-normal fire potential across western Tasmania, according to the Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council’s (AFAC) summer outlook.
“Above-normal fire potential is anticipated in western Tasmania as the flammability of peat soils, moorlands, scrubs, and heaths is predicted to be greater than normal,” the report stated.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s latest weather outlook predicted warmer-than-average temperatures between January and March for the whole state.
In some parts of Tasmania’s east coast, the fire potential is expected to be “below normal” thanks to above-average soil moisture.
But the AFAC report said above-average rainfall in the east had also promoted abundant growth in grassy fuel types, which “will have considerable hazard potential” later in the season.
The remainder of the state is considered to have normal fire potential — which still means uncontrollable fires are possible.
So the west of Tasmania is of greatest concern?
The signs of increased fire danger in the west were already clear last fire season.
Tullah, just north of Rosebery, was threatened by a blaze in January, while a separate fire scorched hundreds of hectares in the Wilderness World Heritage Area.
David Bowman, professor of pyrogeography and fire science at the University of Tasmania, described the conditions in the west as “serious”.
“We’ve got the perfect recipe for the sorts of fires that we saw in Rosebery — fast-moving and escalating really quickly,” he said.
“If we have one of those fires later in the season, we will probably see it escaping control and expanding.”
He described heatwaves as “rouge ocean waves” which could impact Tasmania at any time in the coming months.
“The sea looks fine then suddenly out of nowhere this great big wave comes. That’s exactly what these heatwaves are for bushfires,” he said.
“That’s the thing that keeps me up at night, is worrying about these heatwaves.
“Out of nowhere we could get a heatwave and that is when the game changes.”
Professor Bowman said fires in remote areas of the state’s west, ignited by lightning strikes, could be a major problem this summer.
“After hot days, you can get moisture coming in, so it is quite possible thunderstorm conditions will develop,” he said.
“We’ve seen lightning activity increasing over many summers in the last 30 years.”
Tasmania Fire Service acting chief officer Bruce Byatt said all Tasmanians needed to be prepared for the potential of bushfires.
“Firefighting aircraft are poised to respond to new fires, with additional aircraft arriving in the state in early January to boost this capability,” he said.
“The fires in this last week of December are indicative of the fire potential across much of the state and should serve as a timely reminder for landowners to take the necessary steps to prepare their property and themselves for this bushfire season.
“When grassy fuel types begin to dry out in January, we can expect fast-moving grass fires to occur.
“Now is the time for all Tasmanians to develop and practice bushfire survival plans, clean up yards and gutters, and remove flammable waste from around the home to create a defendable space.”
Is the state prepared?
Volunteer firefighters are often the first to respond to bushfire call-outs, as seen in Rosebery.
The president of the Tasmanian Volunteer Fire Brigades Association, Rob Atkins, said crews were as prepared as they could be for the season.
“Brigades have been pre-warned and all members have been pre-warned. They are ready to go and do what they can,” he said.
“The volunteers are highly trained, and they are ready to rock and roll. We’re all prepared but there is always that day that it gets going into a reasonable fire.”
But when it comes to the preparedness of Tasmanians themselves, Professor Bowman said there was work to be done.
“You only need a couple of heatwaves to kick the whole of Tasmania from a reasonably safe bushfire situation into an extremely dangerous situation,” he said.
“You can have a crazy situation when the weather is wet and cold and then the situation could switch within three or four days to being a total fire ban. That makes it really tough to keep the awareness of bushfire in people’s minds.”
Fire permits are currently required for all burns of more than one cubic metre, and restrictions have been imposed on campfires in high-risk campgrounds until further notice.
This season is the first for Tasmania under a new national fire danger rating system, designed to be simpler and easier to act on.