Labor is close to winning as many seats in the Victorian lower house as it did in the 2018 “Danslide” election, with the electoral commission expected to finalise the count in close seats by the end of Wednesday.
Key points:
- The VEC has declared the seat of Northcote for Labor after the race against the Greens narrowed
- It takes the number of Labor seats to 53 in the lower house, just shy of the 55 won in 2018
- Three electorates remain in doubt, with Labor expected to win at least one
The Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) is on Tuesday finalising the distribution of preferences in a number of seats where counters have been entering ballot papers into an electronic system.
Preference distributions are done in any seat where no candidate has the majority of first preferences, which the VEC said was more electorates this year than ever. Most of these counts are done manually, but a computerised process occurs in close seats.
The VEC confirmed a Labor victory in Northcote, marking the government’s 53rd seat victory.
Today’s date allowed for postal votes to be included in the final count, which had until December 2 to arrive if they were submitted before polls closed.
Labor won 55 of the 88 lower house seats in the 2018 vote, the Liberal Party won 21 and the Nationals won six for a combined Coalition total of 27. The Greens won three seats, and three independents joined them on the crossbench.
Four years later the picture is remarkably similar, despite strategists on all sides of politics predicting a much narrower path to government.
The victory for Labor in Northcote on Tuesday afternoon did not come as a surprise.
Based on internal figures, Greens candidate Campbell Gome last Thursday conceded defeat to Labor’s Kat Theophanous. In the week since, absentee votes with a high portion of Greens preferences narrowed the count.
The electorate takes in the inner Melbourne suburb of the same name and neighbouring Fairfield, Alphington, Thornbury and parts of Preston.
It was one of a number of inner-city seats where the Greens had hoped to take a seat from Labor.
Nearby Richmond was the only seat to change from Labor to Green hands in the November poll. It means there are four Greens MPs in the lower house for this term of parliament.
There are expected to be no independents sitting on the crossbench, with the Nationals winning back regional seats in 2022.
The VEC is finalising preference numbers in Hawthorn, Brighton and Melton on Tuesday, with no changes to the declared results expected.
Two districts with high candidate numbers — Point Cook and Werribee — are undergoing computerised rechecks on Tuesday.
The ABC has projected a comfortable Labor win in both seats, and the MPs for both electorates have declared victory and returned to work.
Bass, Pakenham and Preston distributions set for Wednesday
Just three seats now remain in doubt — Bass, Pakenham and Preston.
Preston, which takes in the suburb of the same name and parts of its surrounds, had been due to be finalised on Tuesday. However, it is understood a dispute over the formality of some ballot papers was yet to be resolved by the time the distribution was meant to take place.
The formerly safe Labor seat has been a surprise contest in 2022. It was initially pegged as a contest between Labor’s Nathan Lambert and Greens candidate Patchouli Paterson. But independent candidate and City of Darebin councillor Gaetano Greco overtook the Greens after election day.
ABC election analyst Antony Green has said it is unlikely Mr Greco would get the 75 per cent of preferences needed to defeat Labor, but the unusual nature of the count has meant it remains in doubt.
The new electorate of Pakenham has been an extremely close contest, with Liberal David Farrelly only marginally ahead of Labor’s Emma Vulin on Tuesday afternoon.
Labor’s Jordan Crugnale was leading by 211 votes against Liberal candidate Aaron Brown in Bass on Tuesday afternoon.